“One should never drive away from good surf.”
— Allan C. Weisbecker, In Search of Captain Zero
“Four legs good, two legs better!”
— George Orwell, Animal Farm
“I often think how unfairly life’s good fortune is sometimes distributed.”
— Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
“They were like two enemies in love with one another.”
— Fyodor Dostoevsky, The Brothers Karamazov
“I fear someday I will meet God, he’ll sneeze and I won’t know what to say.”
— Ronnie Shakes
Parko Defeats Dane? Wait...that's not right.
There is white smoke rising from the Coolangotta Vatican. A new Pontiff has been selected. His name is John Paul Dane I. But the Pope is not perfect. He is human. He has his faults. Like the time he told Africans not to wear condoms. For the sake of future surfing generations, Dane should never wear a condom.
The storyline of the day was upsets. Big, nasty ones. After witnessing favorite sons Joel Parkinson and Mick Fanning lose, Australians must feel like Dick Cheney when he found out his daughter was gay.
Kai Otton’s disposal of Mick Fanning was impressive indeed. Yesterday I spoke highly of his backhand surfing on the tricky Snapper walls. The day after he threw the bones like a craps shooter on a roll in Vegas, and Ottz beat the house. Then he ran into Pit Boss Bobby Martinez. No person should be able to surf Snapper on his backhand like that. I am convinced Bobby sold his soul to the Devil many moons ago at the crossroads of Bates Road.
Speaking of Rincon, It should surprise no one that the only two Americans remaining grew up in close proximity to the California pointbreak.
Jordy Smith beat Kelly Slater soundly. He deserved that one, but he has been on the good side of several close calls including his heat with Bede Durbidge. Bede was underscored on the 6.5. That I am sure of.
When Kelly Slater surfs we watch like a dog sticking his head out of an open window of a moving car. We are happy. Win or lose.
Taj Burrow is quietly winning. Everyone is talking about everyone else. What about Taj? “When God? When does he get to see the Goddamn sailboat?”
Adriano is the best Brazilian ever. I would not be surprised if they built a statue of him overlooking Rio. Jesus is old news. Yesterday there were approximately 5,000 babies born in Brazil. They were all named Adriano.
The most important ingredient in competitive surfing is quality waves. 2009 was a weak year as far as waves go on the WCT. When the waves are good not much else matters. Even bad decisions can’t screw up a good thing. Which leads me to the comment of the day…
“Nice Guys Finish First” summed up the decision to run the women’s draw after round 4. “I just heard that when the Cavs meet the Lakers in the NBA final they are going to halt it after the series is tied 2 to 2 and hold the final game of the WNBA finals. Kind of let Kobe and Lebron rest a little you know.”
Will 2010 be Slater's last drink? Photo: ASP/Roberson
The first event of the WCT season is crucial to world title aspirations. A good start on the Gold Coast can slingshot you into world title contention. A bad result can affect your entire year. A perfect example is Kelly Slater’s early exit last year at Snapper. He seemingly never recovered. Since 2005 only 14 surfers have won a WCT event. Just 14. Can you believe that? If that doesn’t prove how difficult winning a ’CT event is, I don’t know what does.
The new One World ASP format will make things even more interesting this year, even if an Asian MIT grad can’t figure out how it works. With the Top 44 being reduced to 32 surfers at the mid-point of the season, a good start in 2010 is more important than ever. Additionally, there’s been a lot of hype surrounding the “revised” judging criteria for 2010 and the Quiksilver Pro will be its first test at the elite level. And according to recent reports, Snapper is looking prime and ready to fire just in time. But who knows? This is a mobile event and Duranbah might see a little action as well.
Joel Parkinson (2009 Result 1st)
The aftertaste of last year’s debacle may be still haunting him like Macbeth’s demons. Unless his conscience is “too full o’ the milk of human kindness,” Parko will be looking for blood in 2010, and he’ll have more of the crimson liquid on his hands than the aforementioned Shakespearean protagonist. After nursing a bum ankle during the later half of ’09, he appears to be 100 percent healthy and that equals bad news for the rest of the top 44. Because he’ll be surfing in front of a hometown crowd, you know he wants to win this one badly. And I expect him to do just that.
Kelly Slater (2009 Result 17th)
On his death bed whiskey maker Jack Daniel went out in style. His last words were “One last drink, please.” 2010 might be Kelly’s ASP farewell tour and if he truly wants it he will be popping champagne bottles in Hawaii (or before that) in lieu of Tennessee whiskey. Last year, on the Gold Coast, everyone was talking about the kneeboards he was riding. This year they’ll still be talking about his boards, but instead opponents will also be on their knees praying they don’t draw the 9-time champ in a heat. I expect no less than a finals appearance, and if he decides to do the entire tour he’ll win number 10 this year. Book it.
Bede Durbidge (2009 Result 5th)
Bede finished second in the world in 2008. Last year he finished third. How does this guy get virtually no press? Maybe Al Qaeda should recruit the Australian, because he’s so far under the radar he could hop on a Qantas flight from Sydney to Los Angeles with bomb strapped to his belly and no one would notice. Maybe he should start wearing eyeliner or go on a Tiger Woods-esque sex bender. All kidding aside, his local knowledge and ability to beat anyone when he’s on will pay off. Expect him to make the semis.
Mick Fanning (2009 Result 3rd)
If the “revised” judging criteria holds true, which on paper rewards progressive surfing more than ever, Mick might suffer more than any of the other world title contenders. He just doesn’t have the manuevers in his arsenal to match up with like Dane, Jordy, Slater and the up-and-coming young guns. But the ASP Tour is not a Kai Neville or Taylor Steele film and the two-time champ knows how to win. Besides, the judges have suffered from Paris Hilton’s Lazy Eye Syndrome for years. Why should 2010 be any different? You certainly can’t knock Mick’s innate competitive desire and ability to win when it counts. I’m pretty sure he’ll get a good result, but don’t expect them to hand out Micktory T-shirts and trucker hats when it’s over.
Taj Burrow (2009 Result 3rd)
Taj is on a roll. He won the last WCT event of 2009 at Pipeline and the recent 4-star WQS at Burleigh. That might give him the momentum he needs to mount a world title campaign in 2010. Consistency is his strength and weakness. He’s always in the hunt but can’t seem to ever finish the job. His clock his ticking. It can be argued the Western Australian gave progressive contest surfing its launching pad. If the tour was a Tennessee Williams’ play he’d be Amanda Wingfield, longing for the days when he was the belle of the ball. He still has a few prime years left, and half of the time competitive surfing is just luck. Taj always comes through with good results on the Gold Coast. I can’t see him finishing with less than an equal fifth here.
Dane Reynolds (2009 Result 9th)
There’s so much hype surrounding Dane he’s like a genetically engineered love child of Barack Obama, Miki Dora and Christian Fletcher. Dane is progressive surfing’s perceived savior. Last year at Jeffreys Bay he hit his stride and began to live up to the hype—at least competitively. He has so much talent and is so in tune with the ocean, that if he was female the tides might just ebb and flow with his menstrual cycle. If the revised judging criteria isn’t just PR propaganda, his go-for-broke approach in heats will surely benefit. A good start here may just propel him into the top 5 this year. It’s a sizable gamble to state he’ll be on the winner’s podium. At Snapper, he could lose in the first round or win the whole thing. My prognostication skills are like Dane’s surfing and I’m willing to gamble on this one.
Jordy Smith (2009 Result 9th)
I saw the South African assassin surfing a marginal beachbreak in Orange County about a week ago and he was just lighting it up. He might be the best surfer in the world right now. What amazes me about Jordy is he’s 6’2’’ and nearly 200 pounds. He can throw buckets of water and huck himself six feet in the air on the same wave. He probably won’t win, but I predict he’ll make the trek to Bells with no less than an equal fifth under his belt.
Owen Wright (2009 Result N/A)
Owen is my dark horse pick to win the Quik Pro. The only negative for Owen at Snapper is he’s a goofyfoot, which means he’ll be on his backhand. If some of the comp runs at D-Bah that might help his chances even more because it’s a right or left. When it comes to competing he has balls the size of watermelons. Slater? Parko? Mick? No worries. It doesn’t seem to faze the kid one iota. If he drew Jesus of Nazareth in round three he’d probably shrug and say “looks like I’m going to have to one up this guy’s walk-on-water routine.” And he probably would.
Michel de Nostredame, also known as Nostradamus, was born in 1503 and was a French apothecary and reputed seer whose prophecies have been analysed and debated for centuries. Many give him credit for predicting the rise of Hitler and Napoleon, 9/11, both world wars, and the nuclear destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Like most seers, Nostradamus was vague in his writings. His “success” was essentially based on misinterpretation and his reputation as a prophet is largely manufactured by modern-day supporters. Well, I don’t play that game. I’m a little more direct. I tell it like it is.
The Surfing Prophecies for 2010 are as follows:
-The Rebel Tour will not get off the ground in 2010. It will be shut down like Robert E. Lee at Gettysburg.
-CJ Hobgood will enroll in night school classes and learn to read and write. Sadly, all this new knowledge won’t make him any more interesting.
-The ASP will finally have a legitimate all-star event. Why not? Every major sport has one. And I’m not talking about a contest like the WPS All Stars held at Huntington during the U.S. Open. Half of the field consisted of Hurley surfers. That was a joke really. Do it right. Take the top 10 and have an online vote for an additional six surfers and send them to Tavarua or the Mentawais.
-Dane Reynolds will win his first WCT event in 2010 and finish in the top 5 in the final rankings. It might be at the Gold Coast or Bells, but it will most likely be at Trestles. He will also write a book titled “Playing the ASP Drunk Like a Percussion Instrument Until the Fingers Begin to Bleed a Bit.”
-Kelly Slater will not win his 10th world title. In fact, he won’t compete full-time. I put the over/under on the number of WCT contests he surfs at 4.5.
-Joel Parkinson will win the ASP World Championship. Mick Fanning will finish second and Bede Durbidge will drop out of the top 5 but stay in the top 10. After the one-year layoff, Andy Irons will struggle to stay in the top 32 but just make the cut. Owen Wright will not only win rookie of the year, but he’ll finish in the top 12. Out of the 15 WQS qualifiers only Dusty Payne, Brett Simpson and Wright will make the cut.
-Being conservative will be the norm rather than progression. With less spots on the CT (32 instead of 44) risk taking will take a back seat.
-A wetsuit manufacturer will finally realize it might be a good idea to make booties in half sizes.
– …Lost will sign Tiger Woods and the guy you buy weed from.
– Surfer Magazine will only publish six stories about Miki Dora this year.
-Vans will send out a press release to announce the first billion-dollar surf contest. Of course the “contest” will take place over the course of 20 North Shore winters.
-The words El Nino will be written 1 billion times and hype about a “40-year swell” will hit in March. It will be slightly smaller than the February “40-year swell.”
-Another major surf magazine’s parent company will file for bankruptcy. That same surf mag will contact Nugable about advertising opportunities.
-The yet-to-be-released 2011 Billabong team video Filthier Than Ever will win an AVN and the 2010 Surfer Poll’s best video award.
-There will be more than 5 surfers in the top 32 without a major clothing sponsor by year’s end.
-ESPN’s surf blog will hire four additional writers. It will still suck.
-And finally, Jamie O’Brien’s upcoming film Who is Job will change the way we look at surf films.
Dane Reynolds
“I’m a painter in my dreams, you know.”
— Kurt Vonnegut, God Bless You, Mr. Rosewater
Owen Wright
“There is always one moment in childhood when the door opens and
lets the future in.”
— Graham Greene, The Power and the Glory
Mick Fanning
“Can’t repeat the past?…Why of course you can!”
— F. Scott Fitzgerald, The Great Gatsby
Joel Parkinson
“Don’t feel sorry for yourself. Only assholes do that.”
— Haruki Murakami, Norwegian Wood
Andy Irons
“Do anything, but let it produce joy. Do anything, but let it yield ecstasy.”
— Henry Miller, Tropic of Cancer
Nugable 